An Expert Discussion "The Age of Lukashenko. A quarter century in power" took Place in Moscow
July 19, 2019
On 19 July 2019 the Center for Political Analysis and Information Security together with BeloRussian Dialogue international discussion club held an expert discussion in Moscow on the topic - "The Age of Lukashenko. A quarter of a century in power" - on issues related to Russian-Belarusian relations.
The discussion was attended by:
- political and public figures, experts from the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus;
- representatives of foreign analytical centers and embassies (Hungary, Kazakhstan, Poland, Slovakia, USA);
- journalists from Russian and foreign media.
During the discussion, the following issues were raised:
- results of the reign of Alexander Lukashenko;
- prospects for Russian-Belarusian relations;
- the future of the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus;
- development of relations with Ukraine, the EU and the USA;
- scenarios of future parliamentary and presidential elections in Belarus.
We bring to your attention the final communiqué prepared by the specialists of the Center on the analysis of the participants’ speeches, as well as opinions expressed on the sidelines of the event.
- During the reign of Alexander Lukashenko, the Republic of Belarus existed as a sovereign and independent state largely due to its chosen course of integration with Russia. In fact, since 1991, Russia has been a guarantor of Belarusian statehood;
- Alexander Lukashenko managed to stabilize the economic situation in Belarus. He partly carried out the modernization of industrial enterprises and the agricultural complex and provided the basis for the development of the IT sector;
- internal political reasons led to a loss of confidence and partial isolation of the current Belarusian leadership from the West. Relations with the EU have remained in an impasse despite current attempts to resume dialogue;
- balancing policy between the West and Russia leads to a split between the political leadership and Belarusian society;
- ongoing economic and political stagnation poses a threat to socio-economic stability of the republic in the long term;
- the era of Alexander Lukashenko requires a separate and integrated assessment from experts and scientists;
- The Union State of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation has unrealized potential and retains a real chance to become the driving force of integration processes in the Eurasian space;
- participation of the Republic of Belarus in the Union State and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is an essential tool for strengthening sovereignty of the republic. Participating countries, having the right to veto all decisions, have the ability to influence each other's policies. Nevertheless, the Union does not oblig countries to support each other's decisions in the external arena;
- over the years, the economic basis of Russian-Belarusian integration has acquired an exclusively subsidized nature. Complex systems of preferences, subsidies and compensations replaced the economic integration and became an insurmountable obstacle to the development of its political aspects;
- subsidized format of Russian-Belarusian integration is the result of a lack of real economic integration between the countries;
- a major challenge of Minsk-Moscow relations is preferential prices for oil and gas supplies for Belarusian petrochemical enterprises. Belarusian oil products derived from Russian oil provide over 40% of Belarusian exports;
- the current Belarusian leadership is not ready for structural economic reforms;
- economic block of the Belarusian government, updated in August 2018, is to be the most professional in the history of the republic;
- the Belarusian side does not support the ban imposed by the Russian Federation on 1 June 2019 for delivery of oil, diesel fuel and gasoline to the Ukrainian market. The problem of resale and supply of Russian energy to the Ukrainian market can become the focus of attention for Russia’s politicians in the near future;
- Russian-Belarusian trade relations have been in a state of conflict since 2015. Belarusian food items fall under a partial ban in the Russian market. Very often sanctioned products from the EU countries are distributed under Belarusian brands. There are large-scale restrictions in relation to Russian manufacturers in the Belarusian market as well;
- the absence of agreement on the mutual recognition of visas for third-country nationals creates difficulties in the development of tourism and business;
- the western sanctions policy against the RF and the RB opens opportunities for import substitution and diversification of economic relations, reducing vulnerability from external challenges;
- The Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation are interested in restoration of meaningful political and economic relations with the EU;
- participation in the Chinese Silk Road project offers extra opportunities for the implementation of large infrastructure projects such as construction of high-speed highways between Moscow, Minsk and St. Petersburg;
- securing the status of a negotiation platform, Minsk has enormous potential for the future. Its Helsinki-2 initiative does not contain real proposals and is difficult to implement due to the lack of trust in the current Belarusian leadership in the West;
- the Belarusian NPP commissioning in 2019-2020 will change the energy balance of the republic and affect the structure of trade. Minsk is actively drawing Moscow into negotiations on reformatting the contract for the construction of the nuclear power plant;
- citizens with alternative points of view on the development of Russian-Belarusian relations are being persecuted by the Belarusian government in the territory of the republic. Such a policy undermines confidence in authorities and damages the allied relations of the RB and the RF;
- Within the Union State framework, the potential of protecting citizens’ rights in the two countries is not realized. There is no Human Rights Council and Institution of Entrepreneurs Rights Commissioner (business ombudsman) in Belarus. Russian citizens having problems with the law in Belarus cannot take the help of Russian lawyers;
- Belarusian citizens working in Russia have certain restrictions to accessing financial services, as well as to be employed in the public sector organizations. Russian citizens have similar difficulties working in the Republic of Belarus;
- the formation of public support towards the integration within the framework of the Union State and the Eurasian Economic Union is insufficiently professional. There is no systematic work done within the expert community;
- Belarusian and Russian mass media sometimes cover the integration processes ambiguously, distorting historical facts and giving false information;
- media activity of the Union State is ineffective;
- staffing and administration costs of the Union State are unreasonably overpriced. The activity of the Union State Standing Committee is closed and opaque to the public;
- funds allocated from the budgets of the Union State and the Russian Federation for projects of Soft Power Policy are spent inefficiently;
- lack of grant support through the Union State for the implementation of various public projects and programs forces Belarusian activists to seek funds in other countries;
- there is no meaningful dialogue between the civil society of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus;
- there is no systematic and educative training within the Belarusian society, the political class and the expert community;
- a regular exchange of views of historians, elaboration of the overall concept of the history of Russian and Belarusian statehood, enlightening online lectures on the history might be a significant contribution to the development of both states;
- possible transit of authorities, upcoming parliamentary and presidential elections in the Republic of Belarus are in the focus of interest in the expert community and media. The leadership of the republic inspires the competition of all political forces. Election results should reflect the real choice of the Belarusian people in order to preserve political stability during the electoral campaign.
Organizers plan to continue the discussion on Russian-Belarusian relations in the format of the BelaRusian dialogue. The representatives of the government, opposition and expert community, as well as officials from international organizations will be invited.
Conclusions on the final communiqué prepared by the organizing team while analyzing the speeches and behind-the-scenes conversations during the event may not coincide with the opinions of the participants of the event.
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